To make a truly informed guess at the total, we need to also see how many courses had been measured through October of each year. Realizing that is an overburdening request, I will take a shot with 2380 courses, total, for 2010.
This contest needs rules. Here are mine, to be approved or amended by Gene:
Estimate must be submitted to Gene Newman or posted on the BB by 11PM, EST, November 9, 2010. Your first guess counts. Only one guess accepted.
Number of 2010 courses will be determined by the course list as downloaded from the USATF search site on January 5, 2011. More 2010 courses will likely drift in after that date but they won't count, in the interest of having the contest have a reasonable finish time.
My guess is 2379 and my wife says her guess is 2381. Just kidding! Make mine 2300. But you might want to make another rule about how close your guess can be to others, or guessing early might put you at a big disadvantage.
OK I can see that you all (except Gene) are guessing. Here's my scientific prediction.....2290. This was arrived at by writing each guess, except Gene's on a card. I selected Gene as the base because I only had 4 cards. The cards were thrown in the air and the numbers on those that landed with the numbers up were averaged. I then added 25 to the average, mainly because I like the number 25. There you have it. The only scientific prediction. 2290 courses certified in 2010 on file as indicated by the USATF list on 1/15/2011
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